Bookmark this page and come back often for the latest news from the San Mateo County Coastside.  Articles on this page are from April through August, 2006.

Be sure to check our real estate blog archives, too, for more interesting and useful articles.

October 16, 2006

Weekly Market Activity Report
Week of October 2-8, 2006

Something must be afoot. Eleven offices reported increasing sales activity---a number we haven't seen in many a moon. Most offices (20) saw steady activity and only one showed decreasing activity.

Are buyers beginning to sense that it is time to move with no guarantees that interest rates will remain low and that well priced and merchandised properties will not sit on the market?  Or are sellers becoming more realistic in their pricing?   We are seeing a number of price reductions. Are sellers becoming more flexible in their negotiation?   I think it is probably all of the aforementioned. This is a good sign for both buyers and sellers. 

More listed properties are expiring and not being re-listed allowing inventories to modulate. There has been a pick up of the number of offices (65%) reporting multiple offers---most of these transactions receiving 2-4 offers and sometimes selling at full price and in some cases a little below listed price. It is still important that sellers realize that pricing and merchandising are essential to attract offers and most significant that offers are going to take some time to negotiate. 

An interesting phenomenon is that the highest end of the market is moving.  We had a $19 mil. sale on the Peninsula and two $10 mil transactions in San Francisco---reaffirming that those with significant resources are still bullish on real estate.

Open house activity is steady.  Still seeing the best activity on those homes opened for the first time. Buyers are still being deliberate in their decision making process---making sure they feel confident that the properties they are writing on have long term value.

Here are the numbers for the week:  Twelve offices reported increasing listing inventories, 15 steady and 5 decreasing---11 offices saw increasing sales activity, 20 steady and 1 decreasing.

Avram Goldman
President and COO
Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area

October 9, 2006

Weekly Market Activity Report

Fall is in the air. Maybe the sales bump we have been looking for may be coming.  This is the first week since the spring that we had more offices increasing in sales activity than declining. This could bode well for the remainder of the year. Over half of our offices had multiple offer transactions, however the percentage of multiple offers to single offers have fallen off. The strongest multiple offer markets are  in San Francisco and a few spots on the Peninsula. It gives further substantiation that we are in a balanced market for most of our locations.

Buyers are still singing that song "Time is on My Side", being cautious and deliberate before considering writing offers. Although for those properties that are priced competitively and fully prepared for the market, the buyers are singing a different song "How Sweet it Is", as it was for the Palo Alto home listed just under $1 mil. garnering 9 offers and going well over list price. We are also seeing that those sellers who readjust pricing are receiving positive results as they did in Fremont were a seller in the $600,000 price range reduced their price by $30,000 and entertained 3 offers and sold at the previous list price. Buyers are particularly price sensitive.

Open home activity is still active, especially for those homes open for the first time. Offers are taking longer to put together as buyers and sellers are negotiating over longer periods of time. It is important for sellers to continue dialogues with buyers as those that do are more successful of getting their homes into escrow.  Interest rates continue to drop creating more opportunity for buyers.  There are no guarantees that these rates will stay at these levels in the future.  This should be a motivator for buyers as they want to take advantage of these rates.

Here are the numbers for the week: 9 offices reported increasing listing inventories, 16 steady and 3 decreasing---9 offices showed increasing sales inventory, 14 steady and 5 decreasing.

Avram Goldman
President and COO
Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area

October 6, 2006

Half Moon Bay to Montara Market Area
As of 10/6/2006

Active Listings

There are currently 115 Active listings. Of those:

46 are in Half Moon Bay
30 are in El Granada
11 are in Moss Beach
27 are in Montara

Pending Sale

There are 26 properties that are Pending Sale. Of these:

18 properties are listed under $1M
8 are listed over $1M.

Properties that are currently Pending Sale have an average of 90 Days on the Market before they converted to the Pending Sale status.

Sold Properties

In the month of September, 19 properties closed escrow. Of these:

11 were listed under $1M
 6 were over $1M.

Of these properties that closed:

9 are in Half Moon Bay
9 are in El Granada
1 is in Montara

For these, it took 58 Days on the Market before they went to pending sale status.

What we see is that the Pending Sales are averaging 90 Days on the Market, while the Closed Sales averaged 58 Days on the Market. It is taking longer for properties to receive an acceptable offer to the Sellers and convert to Sale Pending.

Pacifica - Quick Facts

83 Active properties
20 Properties that are Pending Sale
Only 1 property is listed for over $1M.
Pending Sales have averaged 44 Days on the Market.
24 properties closed
20 Properties were under $1M
4 Properties were over $1M
Average Days on Market was 32.5 days

September 24, 2006

Weekly Market Activity Report

The fall market is still hibernating although the bears are starting to rustle. Open house activity continues to be active in most markets particularly with homes that are being held open for the first time i.e. the 50 groups through a new Albany listing and the 35 groups through an El Cerrito new listing. Listing inventories are rising once more.

Fewer multiple offers were reported this week, although some markets continue to be strong with multiples----Palo Alto (60%), San Francisco (avg. 40%), San Mateo (45%) and Los Altos (60%). It is the same story that homes priced well and prepared extraordinarily sell quickly---a $3 mil. listing in Marin had 8 offers, a Danville listing for $1.879 mil. received 8 offers and a Berkeley listing at $1.295 had 7 offers and went well over.  Those priced over market and not prepared are sitting.

Price reductions abound as sellers are seeking price points that buyers are willing to pay.  Buyers are cautious and have some resistance to moving too quickly. The continual negative press doesnâ€?t help. There does seem to be more buzz in the air. The feeling is as sellers become more realistic and buyers begin to see inventory moving the market should kick up a notch. Lower interest rates could be a stimulus. There is no guarantee these rates will stay at current levels.

Here are the numbers for the week:  12 offices reported increasing inventories, 15 steady and 4 decreasing---5 offices showed sales increasing, 17 steady and 9 decreasing.

Avram Goldman
President and COO
Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area

September 5, 2006

Bay Area Real Estate Market Offers Rare Windows of Opportunity for Savvy Home Buyers and Sellers

A lot has been written lately about the cooling of our red-hot real estate market, both in the Bay Area and across the country. It's hard to go a day without some news story suggesting the "bubble has burst," or the sky is falling, or something equally catastrophic.

But what's missing in the avalanche of news coverage is the fact that while home sales have indeed slowed down, this current housing market offers a unique window of opportunity for savvy buyers and sellers to profit.

For the first time in quite a while, the stars are all in alignment for consumers: mortgage interest rates are near their all-time low, prices have stabilized, there's a large selection of homes to pick from, and yet the prospects for long-term gains in the market remain strong.

Certainly, it makes a more exciting news story to dwell on the negative, but for smart consumers it is definitely more economically advantageous to seize opportunities as they present themselves. And this market does indeed offer some of these opportunities.

So who could benefit by this current market?

First-time buyers trying to break into the market;

Existing homeowners looking for a new home;

Consumers looking to profit from investment property;

People planning for retirement; and

Almost anyone looking to increase their net worth.

If you're a first-time buyer who has been patiently sitting on the sidelines during this seller's market, you couldn't find a better time to get into the game. Prices have adjusted and stabilized as mortgage rates still remain historically low. Add to that a good supply of homes, and you've got a window of opportunity that you rarely see. With rents going up, first-time buyers may pay little more for a mortgage payment than they do for their apartment today after considering tax advantages.

Because the pendulum has swung in favor of buyers, we're seeing more sellers offering concessions than we've had in years. It's not uncommon for homeowners to credit dollars to  buyer's closing costs. In other instances, sellers are offering to "buy down" the interest rate for buyers to make their home listing more attractive.

The point is that there may never be a more affordable time to buy a home than now. If you wait for prices to fall, you could be in for a rude awakening. It's a very rare year when the median sale price actually dips in California (more on that later). But even if they do go down a little, the savings could be more than offset by higher interest rates and fewer seller concessions in the future.  Markets do cycle.  Yes, we are now in a period of adjustment.  Given still good demand no one knows when the market will begin to reverse itself.

For investors, now may also be a good time to buy into the market. Those interested in building wealth may find some advantageous sale prices on real estate. There is an old expression that you build your equity on the buy side. Savvy investors will buy now and then trade up when they can get a higher rate of return somewhere else.  Real estate investors also understand that leveraging can earn them greater returns than they can get with other investments. If a $750,000 property increases 10% in value, or $75,000, that actually equates to a 50% return on an investment if buyers put $150,000 or 20% down.

Those looking toward retirement in the next 10 years will do well to plan on buying now.

By owning real estate as part of your retirement portfolio, most of your retirement can be funded by others.  The tenant, tax advantages and appreciation over time can fund quite a nest egg.  When you do cash out, capital gains rules offer a much lower tax rate than the tax you'll pay on your other retirement accounts.  With proper planning, investing in real estate can be extremely effective way to fund your retirement.

Over the years, real estate has been one of the greatest wealth creators. Not a lot has changed today, except that prices have temporarily leveled off, creating an attractive buying opportunity.  Interest rates, selection, favorable tax laws, loan programs and seller concessions make this the perfect time to invest. 

So what about existing homeowners? There are opportunities for you as well, particularly if you are interested in moving up to a larger home. Sellers may get a little less than they were hoping for in this market, but the good news is that they can more than make up for it on the move-up home. 

If, for instance, your $600,000 home sells for 10% less, that's $60,000.  But if you are able to buy that larger, $1 million home for 10% less, that's a $100,000 savings.  If you were to wait for your existing home to go back up to $600,000, the move up home will most likely go up proportionately, too.

Despite reports to the contrary, the sky isn't falling in on this market. It certainly has cooled off from the last two years, but those were record setting years. We're back to a normalized market.  It has just been a while since we have been there.

Those afraid of prices falling significantly should consider this: Since 1968, there has been only five times that the median price of single-family homes have dropped in California, according to the California Association of Realtors. Five times out of 38 years. And the average annual price increase during that time has been just about 9 percent.

So while much of the news coverage of the housing market has been dark and gloomy, there are actually a number of bright spots for opportunistic consumers. The real estate market will always go in cycles.  But by understanding the big picture, smart consumers can capitalize on this rare window of opportunity.

---------------------------------
Avram Goldman is president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in the San Francisco Bay Region, the area's largest real estate brokerage.

August 31, 2006

Market Update
Week of August 14-20th, 2006

The most significant factor affecting the market today is the media.  You can't read a newspaper, e-mail news service, watch T.V. or listen on the radio without hearing a story that the housing market is bust. All these reports tend to lump vast regional areas or the entire country together.  The media has been waiting for the bubble to burst for the last four years. Journalism is supposed to be objective reporting, although currently there is a certain amount of glee in the reporters' accounts.  The only show I have watched that has given a least a balanced picture is the Nick Cavuto show.  At least he had analysts, not interviewees tied to the industry, who presented both sides of the picture.

None of us want to live in denial.  Yes the market has changed, but it is not bust.  Yes, in some areas prices have retreated. Is that a negative? No.  Appreciation has been spectacular over the last 3 years.  In fact, in most marketplaces the cumulative appreciation has been plus 50%.  If it backs down 10 or 15% these are still incredible returns as real estate is a leveraged investment.  Real estate has never been perceived as a short term investment, but most financial advisors will tell you real estate is a premier long term investment.

Now back to last week's view of the market.  It is a kaleidoscope.  It seems no two markets are the same. Even where we have two offices near each other the experience is different.  With that said, there are a couple of trends.  First agents are reporting a new wave of buyers looking for homes.  These are buyers that are new to the market place. This is new demand that will be exercising itself.  Secondly, more offices are reporting that inventories are decreasing.  We may have reached the nadir of increasing inventories.  Supplies will decline as more sellers who do not have a true need to sell, as we see more reductions that create sales and as the number of new listings hitting the market diminish inventory.  As supplies come in balance with demand the market will find its equilibrium.

Again the SF/Peninsula had the highest percentage of multiple offers, although Berkeley, Oakland/Piedmont and So Marin had strong multiple percentages too. Open house activity was all over the map---from very active to exceedingly slow. First time opens certainly had the strongest showings.  A first time open home in Albany experienced 53 groups and a chic condo listing in the Gourmet Ghetto of Berkeley had 40 groups visit.

The drivers of sales are still strategic pricing and exceptional merchandising---staging, obtaining pre-sale reports and taking care of any deferred maintenance.  Those houses that came on the market overpriced are now selling when reduced to the appropriate price levels.  We have even seen a few attract multiple offers.  Buyers are certainly price savvy.  Keen negotiation is now the key to successful transactions.

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Avram Goldman, President and COO
Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area

August 11, 2006

We Weathered the Devil's Slide Closure Pretty Well!

Friday, 8/4/06 on the coast is one of our newest celebration days, Devil's Slide opened 6-8 weeks earlier then projected.  The day was beautiful and the gentleman in his wheelchair on the side of Hwy1 @Linda Mar in Pacifica with his sign "Welcome back neighbors"  made everyone smile even wider.  This was the end of long commute times that drivers endured from April 2nd to August 4th in what seemed like eternity.  

For four months we all wondered what effect Devil's Slide closing was having on the local real estate market. Sooo... drumroll, we now have the final data that shows how listings out-paced sales and how listings and sales fared by price range.  During these four months 86 homes closed escrow and 141 homes were listed for sale.  We wondered how this compared to the same 4 month period last year.  In 2005 124 homes closed escrow and 117 homes were listed for sale.  Yes, that is a sellers market.  This year the closed sales are down by 36% during this period.

But is this the whole story?  We decided to check several other cities in San Mateo County during this 4 month period.  We looked at Pacifica first which had 111 homes that closed escrow and 152 new listings.  In 2005 closed sales were 118 with 127 new listings.  The closed sales were almost the same for each year but the inventory of new listings increased by 17% this year.  We checked several cities that would not have been affected at all by Devils Slide, Millbrae, San Mateo, Redwood City and Menlo Park.  Redwood City and Millbrae showed the widest range between the number of closed sales and the number of new listings this year as compared to last year.  Redwood City had a 29% increase in listing inventory and Millbrae had a 19% increase in inventory from the previous year. San Mateo and Menlo Park both had just about the same number of sales and new listings during this four month period as they did the year before. We're starting to think we weathered the Devil's Slide closure pretty well.

The first Sunday after the Slide opened we held an open house and wondered what it would be like.  The day was beautiful and streams of cars were coming to the coast from the south and the north.  One buyer came in from San Francisco and proceeded to explain how the coast was a good value and would experience great appreciation once the tunnel opened.  The publicity that the road closing caused may just have opened a "tunnel of opportunity" that will help maintain coastal property values. 

August 9, 2006

Up-date on Bay Area Real Estate Market

The theme this week is status quo----sort of. There is a change that we haven't seen for awhile---some marketplaces showed inventories decreasing. This was due to an increased number of expired listings and fewer listings coming on the market. San Francisco and San Mateo counties are the first to see this trend. Only time will tell if this trend will continue. What it means in San Francisco and San Mateo is the reduction of months supply of inventory which helps to keep those market moving and active. As of the end of July both San Francisco and San Mateo are a little under 3 months supply which indicates a balanced to a sellers market depending on price and property class (single family residences vs. condos). Santa Clara is a little under 4 months. Alameda and Marin are at a little over 4 months---balanced to buyer's market. Contra Costa and Sonoma counties are over 6 months showing more of a buyer's market. As a reminder you cannot paint a whole county with a broad brush. Even in more challenged markets there are pockets where demand outstrips supply. We need to focus on what is occurring in your specific market.

Buyers are still being patient and cautious. Multiple offers have tailed off. The majority of these transactions are still occurring on the SF Peninsula. The most active price area on the Peninsula is $1-1.5 price category among single family homes. We are still observing good open house activity. This is exemplified by the 130 groups through a Burlingame open house. This is certainly not the rule. First time open listings are generating the largest crowds.

The rule is for those homes that are totally prepared for the market and priced strategically are selling quickly and at the highest prices. That means total staging and all deferred maintenance taken care of. Pricing is also critical as buyers are more price conscious than they have been over the last 8 years.

Avram Goldman
President and COO Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area

Snapshot of the Coastal Market for the First Half of 2006

July 7, 2006

Decorative Molding Updates and Adds Value to Your Home

Architectural molding can change the feel of any room and the style from say traditional to modern as an example. Many times simply removing the existing molding can make the difference. Adding molding defines space, and adds visual interest. Moldings can be placed on ceilings, around walls, floors, windows and doors.

A great cost effective trick that we have used in our remodeling projects is to upgrade the baseboards by replacing with a decorative style that is 5 to 6 inches high. Our moldings around our doors and windows looked dated, too small and didn't match our new baseboards. We had the contractor purchase more baseboard molding and "saw rip" the top decorative detail which was about 11/2 to 2 inches. He then used this to add to the existing framing around the doors and windows. This saved time, mess and money by not removing the old framing and creating a matching frame style to the new baseboard.

These are the most common types of molding that you will see in today's homes:

Crown Molding. Also called a cornice, this type of molding is found where the wall meets the ceiling. It can have the effect of making a ceiling appear higher. It's not common in modern homes.

Dentil Molding. A horizontal series of square blocks runs under a crown molding. It is used break up the shadow under crown molding and to add additional detail. It is typically seen in formal, traditional homes.

Baseboard Molding. This runs along the bottom of a wall, where the wall meets the floor. In a modern setting, the baseboard might be just 4-inches high with no details. In a traditional setting it is more likely to be 6-inches high with a curved profile.

Shoe Molding. This type of molding is a quarter-round strip that is installed to cover the gap between the floor and the baseboard if the floor is uneven. When wall-to-wall carpeting is installed, it's a neater look to have no shoe molding.

Door and Window Casings. These run around doorways and windows, helping to define the space. Like other moldings, if they have a contoured surface they will have a more traditional look than if they are flat. Modern door and window casings are often made of metal, while in a traditional setting they will typically be made of wood.

Chair Rails. These are traditional moldings that run horizontally around a room at approximately 32 inches to 36 inches above the floor. In Europe, during the 17th and 18th centuries, chairs were placed around the perimeter of a room instead of scattered throughout the room. Chair rails were originally used to protect the wall from being damaged by the backs of chairs. The wall above and below a chair rail can be treated differently, with wallpaper above and paint below.

Classic Shapes. From Cavetto, a concave semi-circle molding, to Scotia, in which the bottom of the molding juts out, there are many different shapes from which to choose.

View illustrations and descriptions in the Architecture Guide's Classic Molding Types section.

June 30, 2006

Bay Area Weekly Market Update June 19th - 25th

The week of June 19-25th showed a bit of an upswing. Although the market is not moving anywhere near the velocity of last year, the best priced and staged homes are selling in historically short periods of time. Yes, more homes are available than we have seen since 2003, but are nowhere near the slow cycles of the early 80's and 90's.

We are seeing fewer multiple offers around the Bay with the exception of the SF/Peninsula where percentages run from 20-75% of listings sold being involved in multiple offers. We are still having shortages of good listings in the SF/Peninsula market under the $1-1.5 mil. price range and the upper ends of those markets still are moving where there are shortages of available listings.

Open house activity is slowing, particularly for the listings that are being held open for the 3rd or 4th times. Well priced and prepared homes being held open for the first time are attracting large groups of buyers. There are still plenty of buyers looking; they are just taking longer to make their decisions. The volume of price reductions has increased as motivated sellers are trying to find buyer price points. I am attaching an article from the Wall Street Journal discussing the advantages of different pricing and reduction strategies.

What we are noticing is that the flow of new listings coming on the market is beginning to slow. I think over the next several months we will see those sellers that don't have a compelling reason to sell taking their homes off the market. This will be a positive sign for the market as it will accurately reflect the true inventory available. Now is a great time for buyers as choice is at the highest point in years and interest rates are still under 7% which is historically low.

Avram Goldman, President and COO
Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area

June 25, 2006

Bay Area Weekly Market Update June 12th - 18th

The market is trying to define itself----if there is a pattern or trend is that there is none. One week activity is up and the next week it is down. There are some general trends in most geographic areas, but that can vary. In most areas we are in a balanced market. Multiple offers are the exception not the rule in most markets, excluding San Francisco and the Peninsula where the number of sales are down from last year, but they are still seeing good numbers of multiples and pre-emptive offers among single family homes.

Here is what we see generally, the number of price reductions are increasing, buyers are in no hurry as they feel they can wait as inventories continue to increase, homes that are priced at market or below and are staged have the best chance of entertaining multiple offers, there is an increase in the cases of buyer's remorse as the media continues to pound the public with negative conjecture, in spite of the negativity, open house activity is fairly brisk, even if the seller and the listing agent feel they have accurately determined a listing price many of these listings are still sitting, condo inventories are increasing at a faster pace than single family homes, and condo markets in most areas are now a buyer's market.

As we circle the Bay and the Monterey Peninsula here is how it looks:  San Francisco and the Peninsula have the lowest inventories and the most multiples indicating a seller/balanced market---a few examples in the under $1milion range 11 offers on a 4 bedr home in the Richmond?three pre-emptive offers in the SF Lombard office one going over $250K, and finally a listing at $700k went $50,000 over; we have seen an increase of activity in the No. Bay---Marin is a balanced market under $2 million over it is a buyer's market, Sonoma is a balanced/buyer's market depending on area and price range; the East Bay with the exception of Oakland is a balanced to buyer's market?we have seen an increase in activity in So. Alameda county which has been slower since the beginning of the year, the Monterey Peninsula has seen a slowing trend since the beginning of the second quarter and is now a buyer's market with a large inventory. 

Here are the numbers for the week of June 5th-12th: 12 offices reported increasing listing inventories, 16 steady and 3 decreasing----10 offices showed increasing sales activity, 16 steady and 5 declining.

Avram Goldman, President and COO
Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area

June 1, 2006

Changing Market Dynamics

Predicting what will happen in the real estate market is always a challenge. For the past ten years, skeptics have predicted that the real estate bubble would burst that particular year, yet the market continued to experience tremendous gains. 

Despite the current and near-term expected moderation in the number of existing home sales, we believe that the housing market will continue to benefit from positive long-term economic and demographic fundamentals. We knew the market couldn't sustain an overwhelming pace of growth throughout this decade, and so we expect a return to a more normal level. The smart sellers and buyers are those who will take advantage of the anticipated stable market.  

Now more than ever before, we want to help you understand the long-term market fundamentals so you can make well-informed decisions.

Demographics experts at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies expect to see 13.3 million additional households between 2005 and 2015. Significant growth in the numbers of immigrants, minority households, and echo boomers will be an important part of this picture. Even though home prices are far higher than they were 20 years ago, housing affordability and household income are also both greater, so people can afford more for a home than they could back then. Combine this with Global Insight's expectation that mortgage rates will stay below 8 percent for the next nine years - and it all adds up to an excellent time to buy or sell real estate. 

Our goal is to help you gain an accurate understanding of this more normal and stable real estate landscape in which buyers will have opportunities that they didn't have before - choices in the home of their dreams. Sellers will need to know how to price their home to best advantage to attract buyers - and the smart ones will take advantage of this changing market.  

Real estate is a favorite topic when people get together. As you discuss the market with your friends and family, remember to pass along our Web address and phone number to them. We are constantly updating our site and our blog to keep you informed on the market and events that affect your home's value.

This is an outstanding time to invest in real estate. Call us today at 650-712-0411.